Predictions for 2011

After reading all sorts of predictions for the upcoming year, I’ve decided to add my own.

However, I should alert you a few things. First, while this blog has a diverse audience, these predictions are distinctly spirits and wine industry oriented. My ‘editor’ thinks they’re a bit too insider. But, it’s call Booze Business…duh.

Second, please be aware of the fact that any similarity between these forecasts and the likelihood of occurrence is, well, unlikely.

Without further ado, here are my tongue-in-cheek predictions for 2011.

Companies

In a complete reversal of expectations, Fortune Brands will become the majority stockholder in Diageo and the expected owner by 2012. “Hey, we’re one of the only American owned spirits companies left,” a Fortune senior executive will say, “…and the groundswell of patriotic fervor helped us raise the funds.”

Wholesalers/distributors

McLane Company (whose parent company is owned by Warren Buffett) will finish 2011 by buying nearly all spirits and wine wholesalers except for Southern Wine and Spirits.

Meanwhile, in a related action, Southern will announce that it is vacating the distributor tier and will become a spirits and wine supplier. Someone with the company will say, “What the hell, we’re the ones who build the brands anyhow… it’s time we started making the stuff.”

Products

The blended scotch market will start to grow dramatically led by Haig, Cutty Sark, Old Smuggler and Black & White. The Scotch Whisky Association will declare a drought of inventories and prices will soar. As a result, consumers will leave scotch by year’s end.

Next year will indeed be the year of brown goods, as sales of blended American whisky will increase, led by interest among millennial drinkers. Brands like Philadelphia, Carstairs and the venerable Seagram’s 7 will lead the growth. Some entry-level consumers will remark, “If it was good enough for my great granddad, it’s good enough for me.”

The maker’s of 4 Loco will reformulate the product replacing the energy drink component with a Viagra-like ingredient. Their advertising will include the statement, “We make no claims about sexual prowess but do suggest that it’s the best 4 hours you’ll ever have.”

Also in the new products area, trying to capture a large share of the aging baby boomer market, the makers of Metamucil fiber products will license their name and ingredients for a liqueur. A spokesperson will explain, “While everyone concentrates on the youth market, we’re looking at the other end of drinkers.” The brand will bring a new meaning to the phrase, the morning after.

Privatization

In a startling development, all the control states looking at privatization will decide to keep the status quo and remain state run. They will explain that control states are the only way for small brands to survive. Not to mention the financial well being of their employees.

Retailers

Big box store chains will reverse course and stop selling major brands at extremely low prices. They will say, “We’re less interested in deep discounts and more interested in building brands and making sure that the independent stores are able to compete.”  Executives in charge will be committed.

Seagram

The former Seagram owner will sell his shares in a music company to invest in a new spirits product that consumers will love, will generate huge profit margins and will revolutionize the spirits business beyond imagination. Unfortunately, none of the distributors will handle the brand.

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Starbucks and the Booze Business

There’s been lots of press (WSD among others) about Starbucks testing a concept in Seattle to sell wine and beer in a store location to be named 15th Avenue Coffee and Tea.

Presumably, if the concept works they will roll it nationally. And if they put spirits on the menu it’s fun to think about what these “bars” might be like.

So, borrowing a page from David Letterman, here are my top 10 reasons I won’t be having a drink (other than coffee) at a Starbuck bar/café:

10. Can’t see myself saying, “I’ll have another please barista-keep.”

9. The new drink sizes called “buzzed,” “blitzed” and “I love you man.”

8. Drinks like the Seattle Slammer made with Frappuccino, Starbuck Cream Coffee Liqueur and Puget Sound Vodka.

7. PIA, the instant Whiskey powder.

6. Martinis served in recycled paper cups with caff/decaf and other shot options.

5. Iced Chai Latte with a shot of Sochu.

4. Bar food choices like oatmeal, hummus and veggies and apple bran muffins.

3. Scotch from Kenya, Costa Rica, Sumatra and Pike Place.

2. You line up to order and wait for the staff to stop talking about their date last night and for the customer ahead of you to search for money. Then you wait again for the drink, complain that they got it wrong and leave in disgust vowing never to come back.

1. The thought of a 90 proof soymilk shot with a beer chaser makes me want to gag.

Okay, okay…so I’ll keep my day job.

Care to offer any reasons of your own?

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Bronfman Troubles

I’m away this week but saw this lead story in Wine & Spirits Daily today. I’m sharing it with you with permission from Meghan. My comments will be posted soon.

Wine & Spirits Daily

October 13, 2010

How a Cult Allegedly Swallowed $150m of the Seagram Fortune

Dear Client:

Vanity Fair has published a detailed, fascinating account of the Bronfman sisters’ alleged involvement with a so-called cult, resulting in a loss of roughly $150 million over the past 6 years.  The article sums up how the heiresses to the Seagram fortune, Sara and Clara Bronfman, became involved with nxivm (pronounced Nexxium) and its founder Keith Raniere.  It also speculates about their relationship with their father and how Raniere “seems also to have tapped into a complex emotional rift between the sisters and their father, billionaire philanthropist Edgar Bronfman Sr.”  Note that Raniere, Edgar Bronfman Sr., Sara and Clare did not comment for this story.

“What seems clear, from court documents and interviews with ex-nxivm members–and those who have come into conflict with the group and its mysterious guru–is that Sara and Clare Bronfman could be in serious trouble,” says the article.

The author, Suzanna Andrews, says that as much as $150 million was taken out of the Bronfmans’ trusts and bank accounts over the past 6 years, according to legal filings and public documents.  $66 million was allegedly used to cover Raniere’s losses in the commodities market, $30 million to buy real estate in Los Angeles and around Albany, $11 million for a private jet, and millions more to fund “a barrage of lawsuits across the country against nxivm’s enemies.”

A number of people have reportedly come forward in recent months with stories about nxivm regarding “private detectives allegedly obtaining bank and phone records of nxivm opponents; stories of its critics being followed and threatened and, in one case, reportedly run off the road by a black limousine; accounts of a motherless three-year-old boy, brought into the group as a newborn under mysterious circumstances, and about the circumstances behind the Dalai Lama’s visit to Albany.”  In all, there are “multiple lawsuits” today involving the Bronfman sisters, with allegations of possible blackmail, perjury, theft and “a conspiracy to forge documents.”

Here’s a link to the full article: http://www.vanityfair.com/culture/features/2010/11/bronfman-201011?currentPage=1

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