The US Census

This week’s Ad Age had a story and insert about trends from the 2010 census. I found the information and learning interesting as a snapshot of the US market in general and my favorite industry in particular.

If you look closely at Ad Age’s analysis and spend some time with the census results itself, the “story” is about the shifting population. Not a new trend, by any means, but some interesting twists and turns that continue to affect marketing.

First, it should come as no surprise that the US is becoming more diverse — the minority populations grew 8 times faster than the majority white, non-Hispanic population.

Interestingly though, the news about Hispanics is that the population and growth is concentrated, with nearly half of all US Hispanics living in just two states – you guessed it – California and Texas. And, three quarters live in just eight states.

The Asian population is growing even faster and is more highly concentrated. Since 2000, the population has grown by 43%. New York and California have the largest concentrations.

Among African Americans, the Census data reported by Ad Age indicates, “many are moving to the suburbs and to the South…a sign of better job prospects and increasing affluence.”

I think the implications of these shifts are clear. The consumer and the spirits and wine marketplace is anything but homogeneous. Strategies, plans, brand building and related marketing/sales factors that don’t take this into account are simply worthless.

I also think that as affluence and acculturation take hold, the old rules of who drinks what need to be re-examined. As demographics change, over time, so do attitudes, life styles and purchase behavior.

Oh, one more piece of information from Ad Age caught my eye that I wanted to share. In an analysis of Boomers sponsored by AARP, it seems that older Boomers (55 to 65 years) spend as much on alcohol as the general population. But, younger Boomers (45 to 55 years) spend 15% more than the population in general.

No surprise to me…I used to think it was because the empty nest means more entertaining and food and beverage occasions. I now know better. It is not because of the empty nest – it’s more drinking because the kids have come back home.

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“It will never sell” vs. “You never know”

I was chatting with James Espey the other day and the subject of Baileys Irish Cream came up. For those of you who don’t know him or of him, suffice to say that James is a legend in the spirits industry as a very senior manager that has successfully run companies, categories and brands. In addition to creating the Keepers of the Quaich (see Sept. 28, 2010 posting) James’ innovation history includes the invention of Malibu, significant involvement in Baileys and much more.

He is still at it with a range of new and unique ventures including Last Drop Distillers among other ventures.

Anyway, the subject turned to what it takes for a brand to withstand the naysayers (generally corporate types who are risk adverse and would rather buy than create) and the prognosticators (the self proclaimed experts at prediction of success and failure). James told me the story of a well known industry observer who took one look at the Baileys idea and proclaimed, “that s**t will never sell.” Well, the forecast was wrong but never mind, that gent went on to make millions in the industry anyhow.

The Baileys story I had heard came from the late Jerry Mann (former Seagram CEO) right after I took over new products. His advice began with a typical Jerry Mann comment. “Listen pal,” he said between puffs, “in this business, you just never know what will sell and what won’t.”

It seems that when Jerry was running a distributor operation in California a friend called and asked for a favor, which was to buy some 5,000 cases of this new cream liqueur. He thought it was doomed for failure but a friend asked a favor and Jerry complied. As he put it, “we stuck the crap in the back of the warehouse and forgot all about it.” Then one day out of the blue, a sales manager called and informed him that retailers were clamoring for “that crap at the back of the warehouse.”

7 million cases per year later, despite ups and downs, lower priced knock-offs and diet and weight concerns, Baileys is still going strong and a true global brand.

According to James, it was launched using a well thought out new product approach, a strong dedicated team, management commitment and an understanding of consumer needs and wants. Which I believe gave the brand its momentum. Once you get momentum, boys and girls, even a large bureaucratic behemoth can’t slow you down.

Just ask Seagram’s 7 Crown.

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Cuervo for Sale?

I no sooner posted the piece below on South America when my inbox lit up with stories about the possible sale of Jose Cuervo International.

(In case you don’t know, the brand(s) are owned by the Beckmann family and distributed worldwide by Diageo.)

Both Buffalo Trace Newsletter and Wine and Spirits Daily had special additions on Sunday reporting that the Beckmann family was in talks to appoint Barclays to explore a possible $2 billion sale of all or part of the Jose Cuervo brand.

I heard from a wide range of people who know the brand and the players well. Their opinions on the matter were all over the place, but very interesting.

Some wondered about the low price…

“As recently as a few years ago, they bragged about a $5 billion price tag …$2 billion must be for part and not the production or for limited worldwide distribution…seems crazy.”

The more cynical views had to do with the historic combative nature of the relationship between Cuervo and Diageo…

“I once heard a senior Diageo executive say that if Patron were available, they would gladly overpay for it in order not to have to deal with the Beckmanns any longer.”

“Diageo’s recent poor performance on the brand now looks like a strategy to keep the value low in order to buy the Beckmanns out.”

My own view is that it could be (as WSD suggests) based on a preemptive move against the possible sale of Sauza, although count me among those who think Beam Global will remain in tact and flourish in the future. Perhaps it’s a warning shot to Diageo to pick up the pace since their contract comes to an end in a few years.

What I can’t understand is where Proximo (also owned by Beckmann family members) fits in the equation. They are doing well and could easily handle the addition of Cuervo to the portfolio. But, their strength is strictly in the US. So, perhaps the low price tag is for international distribution.

One thing for sure is that the Beckmanns are shrewd and unpredictable so who knows what they have in mind.

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